Forum:2009 Atlantic hurricane season/Pre-Season
January Happy New Years! Might as well fashion this one to keep up with years. Jake52 09:47, 9 January 2009 (UTC) Pre-season predictions/mid-season outlooks Hi. The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is almost here, and I wanted to start a section on guessing the number of storms/landfalls/retired names here. I think there will be 11-14 storms, 4-7 hurricanes, 2 or 3 major hurricanes, 4 US landfalls with at least one being a major hurricane, although more or the same landfalls elsewhere, and 1-3 retired names. I think it will be above average, but nowhere close to 2008, 2004, or 2005. Anyone have other predictions? 20:47, 18 March 2009 (UTC) 8-11 NS, 3-5 H and 2-4 MH which is the forecast, season will begin late and here is more. June Storm 1: June 21-25 forming near Puerto Rico and move west. August Storm 2: August 2-4 forming in the Gulf and move west. Hurricane 1, Storm 3 August 5-18 forming near the Cape Verdes and move west, peak as a cat 2, moving slowly west snd northwest, eventually hit Cape Race. Major Hurricane 1, Hurricane 2, Storm 4, August 6-12, rush through the East Coast. Storm 5, August 14-16, only effecting South America. Storm 6, August 30-6. September Major Hurricane 2, Hurricane 3, Storm 7 September 16-24. Major Hurricane 3, Hurricane 4, Storm 8 September 21-9. Strogest storm. October Storm 9, October 11-29. November Storm 10, November 26-29. 00:13, 26 April 2009 (UTC) :Oh, it does not include depressions. 18:56, 2 June 2009 (UTC) May AoI: Southern/western carribean GFS is predicting a TS in about 2 weeks in the southern Caribbean! Early season storm maybe??? [[User:TDI19|'~Hi, it is TDI19!!!']] [[User talk:TDI19|'...To...']] 02:38, 26 April 2009 (UTC) If you see the pattern here, 2006 ends early, 2007 begins early, Barry has nearly form in May. The Carribeans had Paloma, which made it end late. A good site to track the formation probability of storms http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html. 03:43, 26 April 2009 (UTC) :Here's my prediction on the date of formation of the first named storm of the year: May 8. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:49, 26 April 2009 (UTC) ::Well, anything could happen, it may beat Arlene's record. 22:37, 26 April 2009 (UTC) ::Mistracked, nearly moving into the west coast of South America now. 04:34, 28 April 2009 (UTC) :::Don't even waste your time with east of the islands until at LEAST June. And even that is extremely rare because there is extreme shear... if it somehow makes it through that you could see a wave become a storm in the Carribean but that's rare. I used to fantasize about crazy April african waves somehow catching a break in the shear and somehow developing in cold waters... it just can't happen (at least until global warming ramps up a bit :D) -Winter123 21:58, 28 April 2009 (UTC) ::::What islands? Cape Verde? And which area east of Central America? I think some thunderstorm south of Panama is one to watch for, GFS model is forecasting a tropical storm to form somewhen in early May over th southern Carribeans. 23:38, 28 April 2009 (UTC) :::::Leeward/Windward are generally referred to as "the islands" -Winter123 22:38, 30 April 2009 (UTC) I would actually watch the area east of central america. Looking at the satellite I'm having flashbacks to other early season storms. Plus the monster ridge over the east coast. -Winter123 22:24, 28 April 2009 (UTC) :From TWD: AN QUASI STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER S AMERICA IS :CURRENTLY ESTIMATED NEAR 05N60W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE :EXTENDS NW ACROSS COLOMBIA TO NEAR BELIZE. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE :FROM CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE E PACIFIC ITCZ...AND SOME :INTENSE LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...IS :STREAMING NE ACROSS THE RIDGE THEN TURNING ENE ACROSS HISPANIOLA :AND CONTINUING E ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 22N. ANOTHER :AREA OF DENSE CIRRUS...ORIGINATING FROM INTENSE CONVECTION OVER :COLOMBIA...IS SPREADING NE ACROSS COLOMBIA AND OVER THE :CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER :LEVELS APPEAR DRY SE OF A LINE FROM PANAMA TO THE VIRGIN :ISLANDS. AT THE LOW LEVELS...ATLC HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA IS :MAINTAINING FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH :TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ON ISLANDS WITH ELEVATED :TERRAIN...AND STREAKS OF TRADE WINDS CUMULUS ELSEWHERE. 02:09, 29 April 2009 (UTC) ::Ah darn, looks like the most favorible area is over southern mexico. If it can make it into the gulf, or if a burst makes it off south america into the carrib, it's a really favorable environment right there right now. Massive high pressure. Still worth keeping an eye on IMO -Winter123 22:38, 30 April 2009 (UTC) :::If you look closely, it is spining according to water vapor satellite! And it is quite organized, still, strong shear is affecting it, strong outflow is also too difficult to make it strength. A ridge east of it will make a northerly track, it will get weaker as it gets to an area of dry air. Convections over South America looks dense, I'll have to keep an eye on this. 00:36, 1 May 2009 (UTC) ::::Dead over southeast mexico, shear increasing. Now we look to the open atlantic... (see below topic) -Winter123 05:42, 2 May 2009 (UTC) :::::Burst of convection formed again and again. 01:05, 4 May 2009 (UTC) AoI: NE of Puerto Rico Wow, it is really starting to get active in the ATL. See the low there? On water wapor satellite it shows how it is organizing. 00:17, 2 May 2009 (UTC) :Darn you beat me. This came out of nowhere, and no models showed anything. It looks like all the elements are in place for a STS to TS transition. Maybe even hurricane with the jet so far north. we'll see.. Current Water Vapor Loop -Winter123 05:41, 2 May 2009 (UTC) ::Haha guess I'm just crazy. Shear got it overnight. I keep forgetting its barely may because its been so hot outside. -Winter123 15:48, 2 May 2009 (UTC) :::Wow, it's still there. NE of bahamas now. Looks pretty threatening but it's about to be destroyed by a front -Winter123 16:39, 4 May 2009 (UTC) ::::Look at GTWO! 22:24, 13 May 2009 (UTC) :::::Took me a while to figure out what that is, but now that I found it, it shows nothing for Atlantic or E. Pac. Thanks for wasting my time. Invest 90L: Near Florida AoI: Possible Bahamas-> Gulf Storm next week Models generally agree and Jeff Master's blog has a post about it. Latest GFS showing a really unusual track for May. -Winter123 05:02, 15 May 2009 (UTC) :If it become an Ana, Ana of 03 will be beaten. 15:50, 15 May 2009 (UTC) ::Don't double post topics please... Anyway it's still in the air. Tuesday is when to start watching for it near southern florida. -Winter123 00:11, 16 May 2009 (UTC) :::It's another storm! 20:07, 16 May 2009 (UTC) ::::Huh? Well when i posted it looked like it would develop over the bahamas but now it seems it will develop in the SE GOM. And consider registering because IP addresses are annoying. It's amazing how much uncertainty there is for this storm though! -Winter123 21:58, 16 May 2009 (UTC) Current water vapor. Very impressive but no LLC yet. -Winter123 16:54, 17 May 2009 (UTC) :First invest of the year and TWD mentioned it as a tropical wave! 19:00, 17 May 2009 (UTC) ::LLC developed, but strong shear toke over it. 01:30, 18 May 2009 (UTC) :::Have a look at the NAM simulated radar 3 days from now! I think this is our future Ana! A bit worried about it stalling in the GOM for like a week, look how far the ridge goes, way into canada north of the great lakes! -Winter123 04:49, 18 May 2009 (UTC) ::::Invests mean mid chance of formation! 06:42, 18 May 2009 (UTC) Invest 90L Officially an Invest now! However very disorganized and a very complex and hard to predict weather event will occur over the next few days. Should be interesting and soothe some droughts at least. -Winter123 19:27, 18 May 2009 (UTC) :Models are generally forecasting to eventually reach Florida http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png, LBAR and DSHP are going to be more accurate on this one because of the front coming! 20:54, 18 May 2009 (UTC) :Access forbidden! You don't have permission to access the requested object. It is either read-protected or not readable by the server. If you think this is a server :error, please contact the webmaster. :Error 403 :euler.atmos.colostate.edu :Apache/2.0.54 (Fedora) -Winter123 22:57, 18 May 2009 (UTC) ::GFDL is very bullish with 90L, taking it all the way up to 70 knots in the coming days. I don't buy it, not for a second. The dynamics right now are very unpredictable, what with the disorganization of 90L and the developing Gulf low that seems to be moving quicker than the models anticipated. Until this thing develops a well-defined LLC, I wouldn't put much faith in any of the models, least of all the dynamical GFDL and HWRF. That being said, I think the chances of either this or the Gulf low developing into Ana are pretty good; I'd put the chances of us seeing our first named storm within the next couple days at 30%. |'C A I N E R'||''ninety-one| 01:11, 19 May 2009 (UTC) :::We got shenanegans down in the tropics already? I was just getting used to tracking tornadoes. The models like this thing. I'm not sure if I do, but it's obviously got NHC concerned enough to disturb their offseason beauty rest. Does anyone else have a bad feeling about this season? Even if 90L doesn't do anything, we should not be having invests on May 18. There's already a tropical wave moving through the eastern Atlantic. The southern hemisphere just had one of their least active seasons in recent memory and the West Pacific didn't wake up until May 2. I know Dr. Klotzbach and the CSU guys are unimpressed and the word "El Nino" keeps getting tossed around, but, in my experience, when everywhere else is quiet, the Atlantic is usually active (either in number of storms or intensity or both). And I've seen it happen far to many times in the past to not take it seriously. Yes, it's early and I hope I'm wrong (for the sake of those who live on the coast) but I can't shake the feeling. Thus far in 2009, the world's oceans have been quiet...too quiet and I don't like it. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:12, 19 May 2009 (UTC) Invest dropped "JK it actually has no chance of tropical development LULZ"-NHC ... Apparently model consensus is that It's just going to rain itself out and die over the GOM by memorial day. How anti-climactic. I bet if Florida wasn't there it would have a much better chance. But I don't think it's dead yet, it seems to be forming a clear LLCC and MLCC just west of florida. pic-Winter123 22:01, 19 May 2009 (UTC) :This is good news for Floridians. They need all of that rain pretty badly. Looks like it's a no-hoper (for the storm, not the Floridians) from here. Squarethecircle 23:52, 19 May 2009 (UTC) Invest regenerated Is now back up on NRL. Squarethecircle 16:14, 22 May 2009 (UTC) :20% of forming due to land interaction. 23:02, 22 May 2009 (UTC) ::Quoting Special GTWO: "THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS." Storm's Eye 06:28, 23 May 2009 (UTC) :::Emergency update: Very good defined circulation good convective bands and good outflow... only with land interaction. 06:50, 23 May 2009 (UTC) ::::It's made landfall near Mobile, Alabama, with near-TS-strength winds. How you doing, Sky? Flooding expected in the area, but the system is expected to move into S. Ontario by Wednesday night. The Weather Network predicts about 45 mm (1.8 in) of rain from this system, but GFS is predicting 70 mm (2.8 in) of rain! Yikes! We have been pretty dry over the past week, however. Also, some models are hinting at the development of a system east of the US and south of Bermuda by the end of the month. There's a chance it could tap into the warm waters of a Gulf stream loop at around 39N 64W, with temperatures nearly to 30C (85F). 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:21, 23 May 2009 (UTC) :::::Guys, what do you think about 90L? Is it a fully-fledged tropical system? Storm's Eye 13:58, 26 May 2009 (UTC) Currently inland Missouri. 22:39, 27 May 2009 (UTC) Over the Lakes. 16:54, 30 May 2009 (UTC) AoI: East of Bermuda Just look at it. 20:07, 16 May 2009 (UTC) :Very cold core right now, and not forecasted to transition, but it's not impossible. Good place to watch it (you can hit animate at the top) -Winter123 22:00, 16 May 2009 (UTC) ::If NHC is issuing GTWO for the atlantic, it got a chance. See http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/gesatfpr.png. 23:53, 16 May 2009 (UTC) And http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/mainrfps.png. 23:59, 16 May 2009 (UTC) :This one is quite more useful and detailed. Seems a 1% chance of this forming? lol. Don't count on it. -Winter123 01:52, 17 May 2009 (UTC) ::Actually, it it 1% chance of forming right on the spot. 04:20, 17 May 2009 (UTC) :::Definitely subtropical now, right near the center its spinning faster but it's also spinning fast hundreds of miles to the east. But it's horribly lopsided and disorganized and semi-frontal so I doubt it will ever be named. -Winter123 00:39, 18 May 2009 (UTC) ::::Semi-frontal systems are not subtropical. Squarethecircle 02:42, 19 May 2009 (UTC) Become an invest over Azores. 16:34, 2 June 2009 (UTC) AoI: Caribbean Organized thunderstorms. 23:57, 21 May 2009 (UTC) :Now weakened from shear. 23:02, 22 May 2009 (UTC) 01L.ONE Invest 91L Saw this in Weather Underground but no words from NHC yet and there's no mention of it in the Navy's site. Storm's Eye 13:16, 26 May 2009 (UTC) :Now coming out in the Navy's site! Storm's Eye 13:36, 26 May 2009 (UTC) ::I've tracked this one a few days ago, it come from the the outflow of 90L. Pretty good circulation. 22:59, 26 May 2009 (UTC) Looks like it finally got a better chance, look on the satellite. 05:19, 28 May 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression One Off Hatteras, per the NHC. Not sure whether it's Invest 91 or not, as I didn't track it. Have a good (and hopefully safe) season, everyone!--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 15:43, 28 May 2009 (UTC) :Yeah, it's 91L. Honestly did not think that had as much of a chance as 90L did. Forecast to briefly become Ana! --Patteroast 01:13, 29 May 2009 (UTC) ::WTF? Last I saw this thing it was dissipating with a diminishing chance of development. What happened? On satellite, it looks decidedly unimpressive; I'd be stunned if it gets a name, but 24 hours ago I would've been stunned if it got a number. If it does, by some miracle, become Ana, it would be the third consecutive season that's started early (It could be argued that with a TD, it already is). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 03:41, 29 May 2009 (UTC) :::I watched the satellite animation all night and finally... a burst of convection formed and it got organized in 3 hours and became the first depression of the year, still incredible how the the mess of clouds became the depression, I don't think it got any chance of becoming a TS, already sheared and the cool water. 04:02, 29 May 2009 (UTC) :::I'd certainly argue the season has now started, and it makes for three early starts in a row.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:22, 29 May 2009 (UTC) Finally! There goes some more convection, just a bit more and it is Ana. 05:16, 29 May 2009 (UTC) :No Ana for May. 11:01, 29 May 2009 (UTC) Yep, TD one is gone, and Ana won't come till later. This depression forming marks only the third time on record that a season started early for 3 straight years, after 1951-53 and 1932-34. 23:28, 29 May 2009 (UTC) :Not gone yet, still the tiny circulation %1 for regeneration. 04:42, 30 May 2009 (UTC)